What's this Blog About?

Politics in Wisconsin as they roll up to every level... and some other thoughts that may cross my mind are explored here from my lefty point of view. My values shape my opinions. You'll always find them in here. Let's have some fun exploring why Liberal values are American values!

Your comments are both welcome and encouraged!
(The watercolor is called Magnolia Tree for Momma, by Audrey Crawford)

Monday, August 21, 2006

WI 8th CD - Kagen Pulling Away from the Pack

In a poll released recently by the Kagen campaign, Kagen has pulled away from the pack in not only the primary, but also head to head with Gard the likely Republican candidate.

Here are the numbers:

Primary:
FIGURE 1 – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTE PROGRESSION
May 2006 July 2006
Dr. Steve Kagen 46% 53%
Nancy Nusbaum 20% 20%
Jamie Wall 3% 5%
Other/Don’t Know 31% 22%



Head to head with Gard:

FIGURE 2 – GENERAL ELECTION COMPARISON
Dr. Steve Kagen 46% Nancy Nusbaum 34%
John Gard 36% John Gard 49%
Don’t Know 18% Don’t Know 17%



Perhaps most stunning are the favorability ratings:


FIGURE 3 – FAVORABILITY RATINGS COMPARISON
Total Favorable Total Unfavorable Very Unfavorable
Kagen – Dem primary 47% 10% 5%
Nusbaum – Dem primary 36% 29% 17%

Kagen – general 32% 10% 4%
Gard – general 29% 27% 17%
Nusbaum – general 27% 39% 24%


From the Survey:
Not only has Dr. Steve Kagen maintained his overwhelming lead in the Democratic
Primary in Wisconsin’s Eighth Congressional District, but he now holds a substantial lead over likely Republican nominee John Gard, according to our recent survey. Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates conducted a survey of 517 likely General Election voters, including an oversample of 300 likely Democratic Primary voters in the Eighth Congressional District between July 9-11, 2006. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.4% Even though Democrat Nancy Nusbaum has run several weeks of television advertising since our May survey, her position in the race has not improved at all. Nusbaum’s advertising buy began June 6 and ended July 3, less than a week before our survey began. Kagen has been off the air since June 26. Figure 1 shows the progression of the results in the Democratic Primary
and Kagen’s dominancy over the field.

The poll is a late-summer one and anything can always happen, but with Nubaum's unfavorability rating at 63% in the district, that's an enormous hurdle to climb for a well-known former elected official in the district with just a few months between the poll and the primary.

This is one of the most fascinating races in the country!

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Further proof that an independent outsider with resources and a credible campaign will be in good shape this year.

Anonymous said...

I've heard a bit about this race, and it is really exciting... this could be a take away for the Dems, a red district swinging blue. The incumbent is running for governer, and the guy the RNC and Bush have endorsed is pretty unpopular given what a big-wig he is the Wisconsin republican party. Basically, Kagen's a self-financed outsider who has a fresh take on things. He's a liberal who's managed to craft a moderate message on a couple issues, especially healthcare. good thing in a district that's always leaned right, but recently has been rocked by Bush's crap economic policies and is losing confidence in the GOP. Keep your finger crossed that Kagen can escape from the primary unscathed and with his war chest intact to take on Gard... and Win!

Sarah

Anonymous said...

Not so fast -- this poll used some seriously questionable techniques, not finding enough likely voters on one side so just doubling their answers to weight them. Some weighting is okay, but that's just too much to be reliable.

It's really going to be about turnout. The following is from the GOP side, but the guy does know his stuff:
http://www.gop3.com/?p=491

Btw, I'm not in the 8th District. Thank heavens, as I am in Wisconsin, and I worry to see another rich guy with no political experience buying another election. We need better than that in the Senate, we need better than that in the House.

Crawford's Take said...

I'm not in the 8th either, but I find what's going on up there really interesting. I have a feeling that the numbers on the other side are not good though since they are still discussing the polls from March. We'll see how it goes!

Donkey Blues said...

Anon, you must be Daniel. Only you would think you know your stuff. Everyone who reads that blog realizes it's incoherent drivel. I've read a lot of the comments on there and you seem to get backed into a corner with every post. You push the rubber stamp, Gard, as if he's going to actually do anything except kiss Bush's ass every chance he gets. Us constituents have had enough of that from Mark Green and that's why he's going to be unemployed come November.