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Politics in Wisconsin as they roll up to every level... and some other thoughts that may cross my mind are explored here from my lefty point of view. My values shape my opinions. You'll always find them in here. Let's have some fun exploring why Liberal values are American values!

Your comments are both welcome and encouraged!
(The watercolor is called Magnolia Tree for Momma, by Audrey Crawford)

Saturday, January 23, 2010

The Afghan War, Opium and the DJIA-2009 Chart

In 2003, I started making this chart after a conversation my husband and I had about the fall of the stock market and the odd coincidence with the Opium drug trade being stopped in Afghanistan under the Taliban just before 9-11. We did it as a joke, one of those 'wonder what would happen if..." kind of things late at night bored with a computer in front of us. So we went to the US State department website and pulled the figures back to 1993 then plotted them along with the Dow Jones Industrial average from the last trading day of each year.

The results stunned us, but we thought, well, it must just be a coincidence...

So in about 2004, I sent the chart to my Senator and asked "What do you think about this? Is there anything to it?" Not only didn't I get a reply, but the State Department immediately pulled their drug estimates on Afghanistan opium production from their website. We had to start going to the UNODC which had similar figures and was still posting them to get the information.

In 2005, I started writing a blog.

In 2006, I first got the nerve to post 3 years of collecting data on my blog.

In 2007, I posted the updated figures only to have the chart "disappear" from my blog and have to repost it. That year there was also a story on the news about the new "epidemic" of heroin in the suburbs of Milwaukee that blamed it all essentially on a black guy who was the contact (not the war, not the huge increase in supply, but one black guy...).

In 2008, I posted again noting "The 2008 figures in particular are a bit stunning not just for the fact that the drop in the DJIA is significantly more than the drop in the Afghan opium projected figures."

I wrote a piece a few weeks back about this as well. Read through it. It's got a lot of new information. Interesting to note that one of my readers was a bit skeptical about the role of corruption in the Afghan government. Hmmmm.....

And so here it is, the Afghan Opium production charted with the DJIA annually since 1993.

Clearly, 2008 is a BIG change in the general trend of the chart...an anamoly. Considering that December 2008 was the height of the worldwide financial crash and the market was in a panic independent of rationality, we could draw a line from 2007 to 2009 and you'd see the trend is still pretty accurate. Instead I've added a log line to the chart so you can see the trend mathmatically.

Think we've been way off base and are grasping at straws (or should I say poppies)? This article in The Guardian titled Drug Money Saved Banks in Global Crisis Claims UN Advisor was the first I've found that out and out finally recognizes that the banks are laundering the drug money and the result is that it now directly affects our financial markets worldwide. It's interesting to note that the British government was in control of the worldwide opium market for a hundred years (google Opium Wars).

The winter report is out as well and as predicted, the supply is so huge and stockpiles so large that prices are falling. No surprise there, the basic economic of supply and demand...

So what IS the objective in Afghanistan Mr. Obama? We'd all like to know.

(Note this chart is hard to read on this page, but if you click on it, you'll get a much more readable copy. I will also email it to you with all the sourcing if you send me your email address.












Notes on the data presented:
^ http://www.state.gov/g/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2002/html/17947.htm -- Information was found at this web address. All US information has been removed from the US Dept of State website with no explanation and I did not save the original reports (something I've corrected withthe UN report now included in the figures).
*Potential Yield estimate from the U.S. White House; UN estimate is approx. 3,600 metric tons
http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/11/28/afghanistan.drugs.reut/index.html
**Potential Yield estimate of production thru Sept 2002 based on the 2002 number divided by two for charting purposes
***Close last trading day of December annually unless otherwise** noted
~http://www.unodc.org/pdf/afghanistan_2005/annex_opium-afghanistan-2005-09-09.pdf
87% of the world's opium production in 2004 and 2005 came from Afghanistan eradication efforts led to an estimated 5% reduction in opium production from 2004 to 2005, but the reason for lower amounts of final product are believed to be on the processing and crow yield side more than the growth side of production.
http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html#afg
2006 figures so far are estimated to be at or above the levels in 2006 depending on whether or not any eradication efforts are carried out or successful (coincidentally, the stock market is also expected to rise during the year). http://www.unodc.org/pdf/research/Afg_RAS_2006.pdf
New estimate is that over 90% of the world's opium production came from Afghanistan
http://www.unodc.org/pdf/research/AFG05%20_full_web_2006.pdf
http://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_opium_survey_2009_summary.pdf

4 comments:

香水 said...

Since it is the early worm that gets eaten by the bird, sleep late.............................................

相信的一天 said...

thank u........................................

John Washburn said...

I the objective simple: money.

The policy can be summed up in one sentence.

You can't run a globe-spanning empire on taxes alone.

George May said...

The correlation between opium production, economy, stock market, and even pop music is explained by the socionomic theory:

http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/socionomics.html